santorum wins, but so does romney

Mike Stone/Reuters

The clear and unambiguous message of last night's primaries: Santorum was the victor, but Romney won.

Santorum was victorious in the two biggies, beating Romney and Gingrich (who was hoping to pick up at least one of these) in Alabama and Mississippi. This ensures that he will keep going, in all likelihood until the convention. But it doesn't mean that his chances of being the nominee have increased much. It is virtually impossible for him to catch up with Romney in terms of delegates.

Here's the thing about last night: Romney actually won. By taking the two lesser-noticed contests, in American Samoa and Hawaii, he secured 41 more delegates overall, to Santorum's 35. Thus, Romney's lead over the tank-topped one has actually increased.

The perception is that Santorum was the big winner, and that Romney had a terrible night. Perception matters, of course. But only to the extent that it will change the balance of power in this race in the short run (unlikely) or affect Romney's chances of winning the general in the longer run (also unlikely in my view). Last night's defeats were embarrassing, costly and wearisome for Romney, but they didn't make it less likely he'll be the nominee, or fatally wound him as a potential opponent of Obama.

The one man who can really scare Romney now is Gingrich. Not because he can beat him, but because he might drop out. If the race becomes Romney versus one Not-Romney (Santorum) then it will be squeaky bum time for the Romney camp.

Although even if that happens it's likely that Romney will prevail. And anyway, Newt shows no sign of allowing reality to wake him from his dream:

Gingrich no longer says he can capture the 1,144 delegates required to wrap up the Republican nomination.  Instead, he now speaks frankly about a new plan: Keep Romney from getting to 1,144 by the end of the GOP primary season in June, and then start what Gingrich calls a "conversation" about who should be the Republican nominee.  That conversation, the plan goes, would lead to a brokered GOP convention at which Gingrich would emerge as the eventual nominee.

So crazy, it might just work. But then again, no.