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January 11, 2012


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Did you see this in the New Yorker?

Arapaho 415

The media hasn't been honest with the general public. They are in the business of hyping this election as a clone of the once-in-a-lifetime 2008 contest, the first since 1968 a sitting incumbent or his vice president wasn't seeking office. Media hired a ton of people to keep track of all the balls they were juggling for the 2008 drama and now have to justify keeping those people employed.

If money weren't such a factor in allowing candidates to stay in the race, the real key date would be Super Tuesday (Mar 6 when 10 states award almost 20% of the delegates). Less than 15% of delegates will be awarded before Super Tuesday.

The media dreads the lull between Jan 31 (Florida with 50 delegates instead of 99 because they're holding an early primary) and Mar 6, so they're doing all they can to convince the public that January and February are make-or-break.

If money weren't such a deciding factor in whether campaigns could survive, Romney might not be the inevitable nominee. But since I think money will be the deciding factor this year, less about 5% (Jan elections) or 15% (Jan and Feb elections) of the US population will drive Romney to the Republican nomination.

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