Somebody (not me) should graph this (UPDATE: The Economist has done so). As you can see, it shows that OBL's supporters in the 'Islamic world' had been losing faith in him and his methods for several years.
The pick of the instant analysis pieces is by the New Yorker's Steve Coll, who wrote the definitive book on American's relationship with AQ. He is very good on the problems posed by Pakistan:
The initial circumstantial evidence suggests that... bin Laden was effectively being housed under Pakistani state control. Pakistan will deny this, it seems safe to predict, and perhaps no convincing evidence will ever surface to prove the case...
...Pakistan’s military and intelligence service takes risks that others would not dare take because Pakistan’s generals believe that their nuclear deterrent keeps them safe from regime change of the sort under way in Libya, and because they have discovered over the years that the rest of the world sees them as too big to fail. Unfortunately, they probably are correct in their analysis; some countries, like some investment banks, do pose systemic risks so great that they are too big to fail, and Pakistan is currently the A.I.G. of nation-states.
Comments