your friends agree with you less than you think

A new study suggests that we tend to proceed with the warm, fuzzy and largely false idea that our friends agree with our political views:

In particular, we found that when friends disagree on a political issue, they are unaware of that disagreement about 60% of the time. Even close friends who discuss politics are typically unaware of their differences in opinions...The figure below shows that people consistently overestimate the likelihood that their friends agree with them on political issues. Notably, even though close friends (so-called strong ties) are in reality more likely to agree with one another than distant friends, people do not appropriately adjust their perceptions. In other words, though we think close and distant friends are about equally likely to agree with us on political issues, in reality we are much more likely to agree with close friends.

This comes from the economist Jeff at Cheep Talk, who has an interesting take on it:

I think that people do overestimate how similar they are to the rest of the world and I think it has important consequences.  But perhaps for different reasons than these authors are emphasizing...people are too reluctant to express themselves because they assume that what they have to say is obvious.  But in fact the obvious thing is exactly what you (should) say.  Because the more obvious the thought the more likely it is uniquely yours and the more valuable it is to others.

This is a lesson that Alan Shearer, for one, has fully taken on board.

Comments

[ejoch]

One of my pet hates is people who make statements (especially on politics) and just assume that everyone in a group agrees with them. I'd never assume that. (apart from obvious things, you know, "I think beating up kittens is bad", etc)

[Robbie]

All of us on Twitter love Radio 6, though, right? And Blair is more or less the devil, just like Thatch? And the LibDems are going to get in, yes?

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[Devremülk]

i like to read your posts. thanks for this one.