This result has kicked up so much dust that it's very hard to get anything like a clear view of what lies ahead. But from what I can see it looks like Obama isn't going to try and save the health bill, certainly not in its current form, and that no bill will pass until Brown has taken his seat. That's already a pretty big defeat for the White House. Obama will try and pass a health bill of some sort, but he's going to have to back up a way, first. He'll have to make an(other) effort to find Republican collaborators. One of them might be Scott Brown, who will be very aware that, once that dust has settled, he's the junior senator for one of the most liberal states in the country.
More generally, and with hindsight, this setback may be a blessing in disguise for Obama, just as losing New Hampshire to Hillary Clinton was actually the making of him. It's a bloody good disguise, I grant you. But, if you get your big defeat in early, you have time to recover, and people get to see what you're really made of. If he bounces back from this - and I think he will - he will have taken a bullet, and be all the stronger for it in the eyes of the electorate.
Actually, I think he may have dodged an even bigger bullet. This result indicates a higher level of discontent with the healthcare bill, and with the Dems, than I realised (and probably than he realised). If this thing had gone through as is, it might well have been a political deadweight. It's not the principle of healthcare reform that people object to necessarily - it's the perceived process, and the timing. And I suppose they have a point. You can't ride a wave of "Change", spend a year putting together a piece of legislation in exactly the same way it's been done for the previous twenty years - and expect to be thanked. And it's difficult to care about the long-term future when things are hurting so badly right now.
Obama was right to suggest yesterday that the forces that swept Brown in are the same ones that swept him to power. He knows he's lost control of them. He somehow needs to get some of that energy back for himself. This is not just about the economy, and it's much less about left-right - I don't buy, for a moment, the idea that Obama has been too left-wing - than it is about the way politics works.
(Actually, part of it will mean, paradoxically, getting more political. This is a very policy-focused White House. In many ways, that's creditable. But high-mindedness can lead to insularity. As Josh Green playfully points out, this would never have happened with a Karl Rove around.)
How Obama is going to convey a real sense that politics is changing, I don't know. But that is, after all, what he promised.
(Picture: Jan. 20 2009: President-elect Obama about to walk out to take the oath of office. Pete Souza/White House)
Immigration reform is an interesting case in point. Republican rebels (from their party) on this policy are far more rebellious than on other policies, at least in the Senate. McCain, in particular, would be great political cover for Obama. It would be a greatshow case of bipartisan politics working well, and could potentially be useful for the Florida Senate race (amongst others - e.g. Nevada Senate).
That said, I don't see how you can manage an immigration reform that Latinos like without looking bad on jobs for 'real American' workers.
I suppose he could always order the building of a Ronald Reagan memorial in Washington...
Posted by: Will M | January 21, 2010 at 01:55 PM
Then again, there's always campaign finance reform...
Posted by: Will M | January 21, 2010 at 04:00 PM
I have a feeling John McCain is in no mood to provide political cover for Obama. The more I see of him the more think he's less a principled maverick and than a self-promoting, opportunistic troublemaker.
Posted by: Marbury | January 21, 2010 at 05:12 PM
Ah yes I see what you mean about campaign finance reform. Jeez what a dreadful decision. Somebody send Scalia hunting with Cheney again.
Posted by: Marbury | January 21, 2010 at 05:32 PM
Agree re McCain, at least on campaign finance. His reaction to the Supreme court ruling underlines how little of the principled politician there is underneath his skin.
If he also isn't about to be useful on immigration it's really an indictment of him - the two used to be his signature issues, after all. A shame, as he could do so much genuine good if he actually cared about doing good rather than winning points.
Another idea that might be worth trying, if it can be made more than just a gimmick, is getting Obama back out amongst the people. Security aside, there's no reason that the President should be stuck in Washington all day every day. And I don't mean a day trip, I mean spending genuine time in each of the States, meeting with Governors of both parties, etc. Talk about successful local initiatives, spot-light federal aid, drum up support for a further jobs bill, etc. The fewer photos with Obama featured alongside Reid or Pelosi, the better.
Posted by: Will M | January 21, 2010 at 06:47 PM
Perhaps he'll convey a real sense of that politics is changing by becoming a better storyteller, as Junot Diaz demands: http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2010/01/one-year-storyteller-in-chief.html
Posted by: Kelsey Parker | January 21, 2010 at 09:02 PM