the long game

Andrew Sullivan harps on the same theme as me today. Obama is working to a longer timetable than most of his critics, just as he did during the campaign. Though you wouldn't guess it from the polls or most of the commentary, politically speaking - as John McCain might say - the fundamentals are good. Here's Sullivan:

I think Obama's handling of the economic crisis has been about as good as it reasonably gets; I think his handling of Iran is equally adroit; I find his relentless emphasis on reality in Afghanistan a good sign; I suspect the only way to get health insurance reform is the way he has attempted; I think the stimulus was necessary and sufficient; and I think unemployment will be coming down when he runs for re-election. On those issues I differ with him on - accountability for war crimes and civil rights - I can see the cool and cunning logic of his moves so far. The depth and complexity of the problems he faces remain immense. Perhaps he will prove incapable of surmounting them. But his persistence matters here. And we are not yet a year in. He is strategy; his opponents are tacticians.

Despite the turbulent political weather, I am somewhere around 80% confident that we're looking at a two-term president.

Comments

[SteveAR]

"Here's Sullivan:..."

How much of what Sullivan said was influenced by how much dope he had smoked?

[ejoch]

I'm just... flummoxed by this line of argument. If another President had had a stream of foreign policy failures, alientated at least half the public trying to expand the budget when there's no money, and achieved practically zilch of proven consequence since election (in spite of grandiose promises), would you still argue there was a grand plan at work?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,662822,00.html
now those guys surely haven't an axe to grind...

[Kyle]

Yeah, ejoch, you sound flummoxed.

[Marbury]

Hi Ejoch. Well I obviously don't agree with your characterisation of this president's first ten months (see previous for why...inc. stabilisation of economy...I think public are "alienated" as inevitable result of unemployment etc and not because of (entirely necessary) spending...and significant foreign policy successes (or failures) take time...Der Spiegel piece is usual disposable stuff).

But if I'm honest there's a more instinctive, less rational reason for my confidence in this presidency. Let's call it smell. Some govts and leaders just smell funny. Our own for instance. You can pick up the panic or the fear or the confusion by reading reports of what's going on inside, by watching the leader concerned - their demeanour, their reactions - and you can just sort of smell when someone's out of their depth. I've never had this feeling about the Obama admin, even when things supposedly going badly, as now, even when they make mistakes. It's impossible to argue about or defend rationally - that's why I call it an instinct or sense. I'm just being candid about how I make these judgements. Expect all close politics-watchers do similar.

[cat]

I agree with you Marbury. He often makes me nervous playing the long game the way he does, but I think he is hanging in there. Hopefully he will be a 2 termer.