The hyper-analytic media environment Obama's presidency exists in means that there are plenty of theories about his falling approval ratings. A popular one is that voters are in ideological revolt at a perceived shift to the left (an over-reaching government, etc). I've never bought this. As I said in response to Clive Crook's elaboration on this theme, the best explanation is the simplest. The economy is in a mess, and - fairly or unfairly - it's now Obama's mess rather than his predecessor's. This chart - via 538 - supports my analysis:
Nate Silver puts it like this:
The economy, I suppose, is sort of boring to talk about: it's a slow-moving sort of thing, and one over which the President has only a certain modicum of control. And so you'll have pundits attributing Obama's slide to all various and sundry sorts of things -- Health Care! Henry Louis Gates! Torture Trials! -- when really it's just been very much about the number of people who have come to blame Obama about the economy has tended to accelerate faster than perceptions of the economy itself.
As he goes on to say, the Democrats' best hope of avoiding a rout in 2010 is to be seen to have taken effective action on unemployment.
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