obama's next move

(Photo: Pete Souza/White House)

Clive Crook highlights a recent remark of Henry Kissinger's, on the president's progress:

"He reminds me of a chess grandmaster who has played his opening in six simultaneous games," Kissinger said. "But he hasn't completed a single game and I'd like to see him finish one."

Now, putting to one side my ambivalence about the character and record of Mr K and notwithstanding my defence of Obama from those who prematurely complain that he hasn't achieved anything, I have to admit: that's pretty good.

Tuesday will see Obama, if not finish a game, then at least make a very bold move. We know that he will announce a big troop increase in Afghanistan, in the context of a comprehensive strategy. We're told he will talk about "finishing the job" which may sound a little Bush-like (MoDo will be pleased) but is probably a necessary framing of a war about which many Americans, not to mention Britons, are deeply uncertain.

Leaving aside the really important - and to me at least, fairly unknowable - questions, of whether this strategy will work, and if so how long it will take to work, let's stick to the shallow stuff: how will this play out politically in the short term? My feeling is that is that it will provide Obama with quite a significant boost, one that's perhaps underestimated right now. Here are three reasons why.

First, the answer Obama and his team have arrived at will be applauded not only by his supporters but by the right, for the most part, albeit softly (as short-term politics, this is actually the easier option). The brickbats will come from Obama's left. So this announcement will position Obama squarely in the centre ground, which is where voters generally like to see their presidents.

Second, we'll see the benefits of all that "dithering". Unlike Bush's wartime speeches, usually vague and full of generalities, Obama's address and associated communications will be coherent, detailed, and closely argued. Obama will seem entirely in command of this frighteningly complex issue. That's reassuring (doesn't mean he'll be right, but as I say that's for another day).

Third, I suspect we will see the "conviction" that everyone's been asking for shining through. Those who argue that Obama is too cerebral to be certain of anything have got it wrong. You have to be capable of some serious conviction to run for president after 18 months in the Senate. No, Obama can do certainty, he can do vision - it's just that he only does that stuff after careful, exhaustive deliberation. Just because he uses his brain doesn't mean he can't make up his mind.

So I think this announcement will give Obama some real political momentum. Suddenly, all the anxieties about the length of time taken over this decision will disappear. The president will be taking the game to his opponents.

Comments

[Charles]

Well you've nailed your colours to the mast and frankly even if Afghanistan isn't fully resolved (how does a superpower resolve political submission?) I'm going to continue to back him.

I've thought about it a bit more. The poker playing President suggests to me that he's going to play more change cards towards the end when his enemies have misjudged him.

With regards to Afghanistan I can only imagine that a regional geopolitical solution could help which would be something of a surprising solution. But in any case.

Harpers magazine have written about the similarity between Hoover and Barack.

http://bit.ly/7XMg1J

We shall see, but Barack gets my support for now.