The central problem of Afghanistan is the legitimacy of its government. Until it has a legitimate, respected government that can perform some basic functions, then no amount of extra US troops will help defeat the Taliban. The hope is that the run-off may help with this. But it will help only if the winner (probably Karzai) is prepared to address rampant corruption. That would require a heroic amount of personal resolve and determination on his part. Fred Kaplan relates the advice of an Afghanistan expert he clearly respects:
Obama should tell (Karzai)... without serious reforms, your government won't gain legitimacy, and the Taliban won't be stopped. Yet, Obama should continue, if you do take the following 10 reform measures, here are 10 things that I, the president of the United States, will do for you. There is a catch: One of those 10 things that Obama has to do is to send more U.S. troops—probably about as many as Gen. McChrystal wants.
Kaplan concludes:
This is the game that Obama is about to enter: If Karzai takes the risks of reforming his government (and there are enormous risks in that), then Obama has to take the risks of helping him succeed.
Kaplan is usually right about stuff, but I fear there's some wishful thinking going on here, as there may be at the highest levels. I confess I don't know lots about Karzai, but everything I do know screams NOT. GOING. TO HAPPEN.
Comments