Nate Silver uses a poker analogy to explain why the left of Obama's party might end up tearing down the whole health care reform effort rather than accept a compromise:
In poker, one of the situations when a player is most prone to go on tilt is when he had been on a winning streak and then begins to lose. It's one thing when you simply aren't getting cards all night and lose money slowly and steadily. When this happens, most poker players are pretty good at accepting that it just isn't their night and will continue to play reasonably well, if perhaps a little overcautiously. But if you had been winning -- if you had already "booked" the win in your mind -- and then you start losing, things can get really, really ugly. You'll make bold, rash, irrational gambles. Your big win will turn into a small win and, if you're not careful, into a big loss.
I wonder if a similar analysis could be made of the Republicans' position - although in their case it would be the sudden thrill of smelling a big victory, after "booking" some sort of defeat, that might lead them to overplay their hand.
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