David Brooks outlines an argument between Niall Ferguson and James Fallows about China and how its relationship with America is likely to develop. Ferguson argues that China is like Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm: a newly confident world power flexing its muscles and seeking advantage in the economic decline of the world's dominant power. Fallows, who lives in China, argues that the Chinese are keen to cooperate and sustain a mutually beneficial relationship. Brooks concludes:
I came to the debate agreeing more with Fallows and left the same way, but I was impressed by how powerfully Ferguson made his case. And I was struck by their agreement about what to do. This conversation, like many conversations these days, gets back to America’s debt. Until the U.S. gets its fiscal house in order, relations with countries like China will be fundamentally insecure.
It's probably too early to even speculate on what the 2012 election will be about, but let's do it anyway. Barring a terrorist attack on American soil, it will be about the economy, and specifically the debt: who's responsible for it and what to do about it.
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