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April 29, 2009


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Would you care to take a bet on the 2016 prediction? :) They are in a mess but not an unprecedented one. I take your point about changes in the public realm though.
And maybe it doesn't matter if a certain % of committed GOP voters stay in a bubble, as long as the leadership sort themselves out. Look at the Tories now - has their core vote really changed their ideas that much since '97? Probably not, but their leader's credible so the floating voter suddenly considers them viable. Then again is it perhaps easier for a Tory who doesn't really represent his hardline supporters to take over, than a republican?


I predict otherwise - because the era of instant feedback via globalised interactions means organisations are changing faster than ever before. The Republicans know this, and will come to terms with it within one election cycle. If they bottom out in the next set of congressional - or even state - elections, they'll ditch the substantive parts of their current platform - even if they haven't figured out what to replace them with.

What will be interesting is to see how they struggle to position themselves - just as the Tories have lo' these past 10 years.


I think your claim is incredibly biased and wishful. Your analysis about the party being self-reflective are obviously correct but to say the party will be out in 2016 and possibly 2020 is extremely speculative, just too hard to tell. I wouldn't even take Obama at above 50-50 on 2012 at this point just because it is so early.


Oh Sam - of course I'm biased and of course I'm speculating! There's nothing wrong with either. And I'm not making any 'claim'. I'm making what seems to me to be a reasonable prediction. You might find it more rewarding to engage with the issues I raise than gripe about the premise of the post. Dp, I have a feeling that today's GOP are a lot less pragmatic than you give them credit for. I can't even see a moderate, pragmatic faction waiting in the wings - can you? Ejoch I'll definitely take a bet on it although you'll have to stick with Marbury for the next eight years to see if you win or not. You won't, though. On the Tories - yes, they've found a credible leader - after FOUR attempts.

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