lost in the echo chamber

I think the Republicans be might out of power for an unprecedentedly long time.

As I said yesterday, the party is stuck in the familiar pattern of parties who suffer bruising, epochal defeats at the polls. The moderates ship out, and the extremists, full of passionate intensity, take over. The party retreats into its own bubble, where ideology becomes the only reality, and it's the voters who have, inexplicably, lost the plot (or not so inexplicably - it's all the media's fault!).

What happens next? The party moves further away from the political mainstream, and loses election after election, until even the extremists lose heart, reality forces its way back in, the moderates regroup and reform, and the party adapts to the new political landscape. This is how it will go with the Republicans, and the only question worth asking is, how long will it take to play out? I was already pretty certain they'd lose in 2012, but I now think they'll lose in 2016 and probably 2020 too. I wouldn't be rushing to put a bet on the GOP in 2024 either. I think their predicament might be worse than history suggests.

The reason I say this is the way that the structure of America's public realm has changed over the last twenty years. The growth of cable TV at the expense of the networks, the emergence of the internet, and the rise of the talk show radio hosts: all these combine to create a media environment in which it's more possible than ever before to only hear from voices that reinforce your own prejudices. Add this to the polarisation of neighbourhoods identified by Bill Bishop and you can see that it will be very easy for the GOP's ideologically-inclined supporters to remain inside their bubble, safe from the doubts and uncertainties of the real world, for years or even decades to come. After all, every time they get online or turn on the TV, they hear Red State or Glenn Beck telling them that socialism or fascism has arrived and they're the last line of defence.

Of course, relatively few people are completely impervious to different views and voices: reality will seep back in eventually, the party will move on and adapt to the new environment. I just suspect it's going to take longer than it has done in the past.

Comments

[ejoch]

Would you care to take a bet on the 2016 prediction? :) They are in a mess but not an unprecedented one. I take your point about changes in the public realm though.
And maybe it doesn't matter if a certain % of committed GOP voters stay in a bubble, as long as the leadership sort themselves out. Look at the Tories now - has their core vote really changed their ideas that much since '97? Probably not, but their leader's credible so the floating voter suddenly considers them viable. Then again is it perhaps easier for a Tory who doesn't really represent his hardline supporters to take over, than a republican?

[dp]

I predict otherwise - because the era of instant feedback via globalised interactions means organisations are changing faster than ever before. The Republicans know this, and will come to terms with it within one election cycle. If they bottom out in the next set of congressional - or even state - elections, they'll ditch the substantive parts of their current platform - even if they haven't figured out what to replace them with.

What will be interesting is to see how they struggle to position themselves - just as the Tories have lo' these past 10 years.

[sam]

I think your claim is incredibly biased and wishful. Your analysis about the party being self-reflective are obviously correct but to say the party will be out in 2016 and possibly 2020 is extremely speculative, just too hard to tell. I wouldn't even take Obama at above 50-50 on 2012 at this point just because it is so early.

[Marbury]

Oh Sam - of course I'm biased and of course I'm speculating! There's nothing wrong with either. And I'm not making any 'claim'. I'm making what seems to me to be a reasonable prediction. You might find it more rewarding to engage with the issues I raise than gripe about the premise of the post. Dp, I have a feeling that today's GOP are a lot less pragmatic than you give them credit for. I can't even see a moderate, pragmatic faction waiting in the wings - can you? Ejoch I'll definitely take a bet on it although you'll have to stick with Marbury for the next eight years to see if you win or not. You won't, though. On the Tories - yes, they've found a credible leader - after FOUR attempts.