who will be america's fred goodwin?

Obama hopes it's not him.

The NYT reports on the wave of anger that is likely to follow the AIG announcement on bonuses:

“Never underestimate the capacity of angry populism in times of economic stress,” said Robert Reich, a professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and labor secretary under President Bill Clinton. “A big challenge for President Obama will be to maintain a rational and tactical public discussion in the midst of this severe downturn. The desire for culprits at times like this is strong.”

The reporter, Adam Nagourney, asks whether Obama's cool temperament is suited to such an atmosphere:

For all his political skills and his capturing of the nation’s desire for change in the 2008 election, Mr. Obama, a product of Harvard Law School who calls upscale Hyde Park in Chicago home, has shown little inclination to strike a more populist tone. The danger, aides said, is that if he were to become identified as an advocate for the banks and Wall Street, people could take out their anger on him.

“The change now is you have a free-floating economic anxiety that has expressed itself in a kind of lashing out at those being bailed out and people who are bailing out,” Michael Kazin, a professor at Georgetown University who has written extensively on populism. “There’s not really a sense of what the solution is.”

“I do think there’s a potential for a ‘damn everybody in power’ kind of sentiment,” Mr. Kazin said.

Well, in political terms, "damn everybody" isn't the worst that could happen, from Obama's point of view. "Damn the president" would be much worse, of course. If Obama is seen as standing idly by as the rich reap the rewards of failure than that sentiment might arise. But as First Read points out, the party most associated with big business isn't his.

I predict that Obama will be largely unscathed by this anger. Everyone knows the problem didn't happen on his watch. And voters can be like children: we like the satisfaction of a good bawl, even whilst our underlying sensibilities remain steady. We want our leaders to understand, but we don't necessarily want them imitating our anger. In this sense, Obama's coolness is actually an advantage - it translates as steadiness in confusing and turbulent times.

If Obama runs into trouble over the next three years it won't be because voters are upset over bonuses and so on. It will be for more fundamental reasons: because despite his efforts, the economy refuses to recover, and too many people can't find jobs.

Comments

[Hi Ho, Silver]

And Obama comes out swinging: http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/03/16/AIG.bonuses/index.html

Smart move, I think. AIG is no more than a piñata right now - a cardboard construct that releases its political and financial candy hoard the more it's publicly whacked with a blunt object. Put AIG in stocks, and Obama looks less like the cash-hemorrhaging finance-titan apologist, and more like the New Sheriff in Town.