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October 21, 2008


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I'm not so sure that Palin has a lock on the 2012 nomination. If or when McCain loses in November, the Republicans are going to be looking for the reason why. Palin will be served up well done and with all the trimmings.


Hi Prentia...I don't know if you got the chance to click on Marc Ambinder's post but he makes a good point: the Republican base won't be blaming Palin. They'll be blaming the party leaders, intellectuals, and the media, and they'll be angry. Palin may well be the person most prepared and best equipped to benefit from that anger in 2012.


I'd be surprised if Palin got the nomination in 2012. She fires up an important section of the base, and this makes her a useful adjunct to McCain; but I doubt she could hold together the coalition necessary to win in her own right. One of her greatest assets in this election was that so little was known about her. She was a symbol, rather than a person: the hockey mom, the evangelical, the gun owner. It's what she stands for, rather than who she is, that's energised the base.

I think it's this, as much as her tendency to mangle the English language, that's driven the decision to keep her away from the press. As a candidate in her own right, she couldn't get away with that. She couldn't go through a primary campaign without tough questioning, and this turns her from a symbol to a candidate. There's been no evidence in this campaign that she can stand up to that, or that her popularity would do anything but collapse in the face of it.

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