who's going to win?

I think it's worth addressing the big dumb question head-on now that the election is but two months away.

We're in an exciting, head-turning, confusing stage of the race right now. We got the Biden text (or not). We had the climax to this year's Clintonian drama. We saw the Democratic candidate deliver a massive speech with breathtaking poise. We saw, twelve hours later, a complete unknown join the McCain ticket. We saw a tempest fly around her that threatened to force her out of the race. Then we saw her deliver a brilliant, game-changing speech. Finally, we witnessed John McCain struggle manfully with a teleprompter to deliver a speech that packed a bit of punch itself in the end (we also saw him declare he was going to win this election and actually look like he believed it).

The guys at 538 articulate something that I've been noticing (and although I think this is particularly true of election nerds I suspect it's true of everyone): the news cycles have got more intense, and are over quicker, than ever before. Each new event makes the previous one fade in our collective memory. Events that were days ago feel weeks old, and events that are months ago feel like a decade ago (remember when Clinton won New Hampshire?). We tend to overestimate the importance of any one event when we're "in it"; the Palin speech being a great example. It and she were suddenly spoken of as utterly transformative to the GOP's chances in this election. A week from now, Palin will be seen as important, but not quite as important as she does now (or did yesterday). We are living in a continuous present, consistently over-impressed by the Now.

All of this means that we tend to underestimate the importance of the boring stuff, the stuff that happens under the radar, and that doesn't come adorned with pretty pictures or soundbites. 538 call this stuff 'the macro elements':

So what does that leave? It leaves the macro elements – partisan ID-hood, base consolidation, evangelical, Latino and African-American turnout and the percentages they split. The organizing work each campaign puts into first identifying, registering and then herding supporters toward the polls. These are bigger than any series of moment-by-moment tempests.

On all these things, Obama and the Democrats are ahead, or have better organisations in place to put and keep them ahead. Palin's selection may gee things up on the Republican side. But I suspect they're already too far behind in terms of organisation, and their enthusiasm levels won't ever catch up with the Dems.

When it comes to the "issues", the big underlying ones are dissatisfaction with the economy and the war and the incumbent president, so again, advantage Obama. The Republicans' only hope here is to turn this election into a referendum on Obama's character vs McCain's character, and take people's minds off the issues (there was barely any issue-stuff in McCain's speech or during their convention generally; it was all about him). Oddly, the campaign complaining about "celebrity" has pinned their hopes on a celebrity-based strategy.

I don't think it will work.

Comments

[Rob Hyndman]

I think the only real remaining uncertainty is whether polling data accurately reflects actual voting behaviour when it comes to electing an African American. We still don't really know how much of an issue racism is.

[Tony]

I think the absolutely fascinating thing about the closing enthusiasm gap is that democrats have a compelling reason to be enthusiastic about the election and republicans seem to have very little reason. Progressives have suffered at the hands of bush for the past eight years and one of those elections was stolen from them. Civil liberties have been tainted and all efforts to advance the progressive agenda have been met with fierce opposition in the bush administration. The GOP in the meantime has been embarrassed by those same things.

And yet, a bizarre thing like choosing an unknown from alaska who appeals to the christianist base has quelled their fears about a pro-choice vp pick and suddenly the enthusiasm among republicans' enthusiasm has gone from 0 to 60 almost instantaneously - for no other reason than the vp pick represents their values (although i would guess this is more because of a surface-level reading of her than actually representing their values).

Why does this VP pick energize the base? My guess is that there are two reasons. First, most GOP enthusiasm probably comes more from the Christianist base than any other part of the Republican coalition. They are scared that liberals are going to turn the US into a gay country that kills babies and won't let them drive cars any more, and so they see it as their moral obligation to organize so that the country doesn't offend God (because even God drives a car - probably an SUV).

Second, the Christianist base was depressed because it thought it would have no influence in the next administration (Romney, Jindal, Lieberman, Ridge, and even to a degree Pawlenty would not be strong Christianist advocates, much less McCain). They thought the country would go to hell in a hand basket no matter what happened. Now that they think they might have influence through Palin (especially if McCain gets seriously ill or dies as the oldest first-term president to ever be elected), they have become energized again. So I think it has less to do with the fact that the base is "on fire" than it has to do with the Christianists re-organizing to their normal levels because they think they might have influence in the next administration.

The funny thing is that when the GOP has been in power, it has rarely delivered for the Christianists. The main Supreme Court ruling on abortion has stood for 35 years with little that has changed on the core issue besides the polarization in the debate (baby killers vs. woman haters). And gay rights have only been furthered, although not as quickly as most progressives would like.

It's all so interesting....

[paul canning]

That's a good analysis of the question marks remaining - and a rare mention of the Dems massive organisers-on-the-ground advantage (thanks to the web don't forget).

What I'm just not seeing in any talking head talk is mention of the electoral vote advantage, which has been Obama's since June. Intrade has

Obama win 311 to 227

[discount coach]

Just for today I will try to strengthen my mind. I will study. I will learn something useful. I will not be a mental loafer. I will read something that requires effort, thought and concentration.