I doubt even a seasoned political operative would be so cynical as to actively hope for a devastating landfall for Gustav, but the GOP team wouldn't be doing their jobs if they hadn't at least considered how they could make the hurricane play well for their side.
On the one hand, if it's anything like as bad as Katrina (and this apocalyptic warning from the mayor of New Orleans suggests that it might be, though let's remember he's trying to mobilise a mass evacuation here), it will completely overshadow the convention.
But, on the other hand, it will completely overshadow the convention. No hard questions about experience, no pundits picking apart the minutiae of foreign and economic policy. No 'He looks too old, she looks too young'. Bush and Cheney have already announced they're giving it a miss, which neatly solves McCain's problem of how you distance yourself from the most unpopular president in the history of presidents while being in the same room as him, listening to a speech in which he is going to have to mention you (and presumably not to say, "Don't worry, John'll be nothing like me, because I turned out to be shockingly bad at this job").
Instead, there is scope for moving speeches, solemn appeals for aid and volunteers, and rolling updates on events. If the GOP can capture America's natural interest and concern for the people for whom Gustav is currently headed and harness it to the platform their convention offers them, it could end the week looking like the steady hand at the tiller in times of trouble.
But providing a pitch-perfect, on-the-hoof response to an unfolding and unpredictable event over the course of several days while the eyes of the world are on you, without looking like you're making political capital out of a tragedy, is a big, big ask. And, as this Time post notes, one that may be beyond the reach of the "chaotic" Republicans. They're also at the mercy of the federal government: if Gustav requires an emergency response, and it turns out to be as inadequate as the response to Katrina, there's no way McCain can avoid the negative fall-out from the opprobrium that will be heaped, once again, on Bush.
So, for a whole variety of reasons, this evening everyone should be hoping that Gustav doesn't turn out to be what we all fear it might be, and that next week - both in St Paul and in Louisiana - it's business as close to usual as can be managed.
UPDATE: More on this theme, from Marc Ambinder and TNR.
• posted by Claudia Jean
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