The latest Gallup poll shows McCain losing to Obama amongst independent voters, 48% 36%. Given that it's probably going to be very difficult for the Republicans to drive up turnout amongst their base to the levels of the Democrats in November, this is bad news. McCain needs to win this group if he's going to win the election.
By accident as much as design, the Republicans have found themselves the candidate best qualified to attract independents. McCain has a proven track record of appealing to voters beyond the Republican heartlands. In a year when being a Republican politician confers about as much credibility as being French, the GOP desperately need a candidate with this quality if they're going to retain the White House.
But here's the problem. McCain won his popularity amongst independents, and the nation at large, by playing the maverick. After fighting and losing a raging insurgency against the establishment candidate for the nomination in 2000, McCain has gloried in his role as the conscience of the GOP, a stubbornly oppositional voice speaking truth to the party of power from within. And people across the political spectrum have liked and respected him for it.
McCain is happiest when he's got someone or something to kick against, on his own side. For a while there, Romney proved a great punchbag, helping McCain rediscover his rhythm in the lead-up to the first primaries. But what happens when McCain takes on the mantle of Republican establishment, as he now must do? Well, we need only think back a year or so for a clue. The crown lies uneasy upon his head. As the de facto leader of a party whose support for him is already somewhat fragile, McCain can't fight the establishment without fighting himself.
UPDATE: some in the GOP are already worried about how much the conflict at the heart of McCain's candidacy is showing
UPDATE ii: if you're looking for a crassly simplistic, inaccurate portrait of McCain, this will do.
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