Interesting post from First Read reminding us that the polling gap between Kerry and Bush in 2004 stayed pretty constant between May and the election - despite what seemed, at the time, to be an incident-packed race. And Bush's lead over Kerry was never as wide as Obama's, post-nomination, over McCain.
Which reminds us that despite the extraordinary, roller-coaster ride of the Obama-Clinton battle, the basic underlying voting patterns established after Iowa stayed constant until the end.
Although the news media, and bloggers, make it seem as if every event in an election race is a matter of life and death, things are often a lot less fluid than they seem.
On this view, it will take something pretty big - a real collapse in confidence in Obama - for McCain to overtake him.
But could McCain win the electoral college whilst losing the popular vote? Ah, now that's another story...
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