On the day that General Petraeus reports to Congress (including all three of our candidates), the always-interesting David Brooks suggests that the surge is having its effects beneath the US political radar:
In a society like this, political progress takes different forms. It’s not top down. It’s bottom up. And this is exactly the sort of progress we are seeing in Iraq. While the Green Zone politicians have taken advantage of the surge by trying to entrench their own power, things are happening at the grass-roots.
Iraqis are growing more optimistic. Fifty-five percent of Iraqis say their lives are going well, up from 39 percent last August, according to a poll conducted by ABC News and other global television networks. Forty-nine percent now say the U.S. was right to invade Iraq, the highest figure recorded since this poll began in 2004.
It's often assumed - by the candidate himself and his campaign at least - that Iraq will turn out to be a positive for John McCain if things continue to stabilise. I don't see it.
On the one hand, Iraq's relative stability is fragile, and if things get worse McCain will look worse. On the other hand, the more stable things get, the less we see of Iraq in the news, the less interested the American people will be in a war that has gone on way too long for its liking - and the economy (not necessarily McCain's strong suit) will take its place centre-stage in the campaign.
So at best, a minor positive, if that. At worst, a big negative.
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