As I somewhat uncontroversially predicted, Hillary Clinton has taken Pennsylvania by the ten-point margin she needed to justify staying in the race.
Leaving the Dems with a big problem.
I don't believe Clinton can overturn Obama's delegate advantage. Even if more superdelegates start to have serious doubts about Obama, that doesn't mean they want to risk the chaos within the party that would result from denying him the nomination at this stage. Not only that, but there are pretty serious doubts about Clinton's ability to beat McCain too.
So what is the party left with? Two candidates, each with their own rock-solid groups of support amongst Democratic voters. Neither candidate able to make inroads into the other's constituency (as PA proved yet again - remember, Obama spent massive, record-smashing amounts of money in this state, saturating the airwaves with advertising). Neither able to land a knock-out blow.
The candidate with the probably insurmountable delegate lead is, it's becoming clear, a riskier electoral proposition in the general than his opponent, because of his seeming inability to reach the kinds of voters that hold sway in the big swing states (white working class and Hispanic voters).
But the candidate who would replace him has her own problems: in a year when everyone wants change she is indelibly associated with the past.
So, 2008 should by all accounts by the Democrats' year, and it may yet be. But gosh, they're making it difficult for themselves...
(more detailed round-up of Pennsylvania result from Dickerson)
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