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April 23, 2008


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Jim Godfrey

I don't know what is being reported in the UK but the excellent Anderson Cooper on CNN hosted a good disco on this last night and pointed two things out, that Hilary may have won but that in the exit polling well over half (may have been as much as 60%) of voters thought that Obama would end up winning the nomination outright, and that such is the unpopularity of of the Republicans that many of these voters will swing behind Obama if he is nominated.


Yes, many of them will swing behind Obama - but some won't. The question is, how many 'Reagan Democrats' are there these days? Ie culturally conservative blue collar Dems who'll vote for the other side if they think the Dem candidate is too liberal (or too black). That may be the biggest question for the superdels to ponder. And are there enough in the big swing states to deliver the electoral college to McCain?

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