
This photo was taken from an abc chopper sometime yesterday. It shows Barack Obama and John Edwards engaged in a rather awkward embrace (the more I look it at the stranger it gets...where is Obama's right arm?). Obama had just come from Wisconsin to meet quietly with Edwards at the Edwards home in North Chapel, North Carolina, presumably to seek his endorsement.
When Edwards dropped out of the race it was assumed an endorsement of Obama would follow. After all, he's spent most of the past twelve months attacking Clinton as a symbol of the Washington status quo, and his message of change seems more in tune with Obama's. But as I wrote at the time, Edwards is a highly calculating and ambitious man, and if he thinks Hillary can win this, then he may back her.
His associates have been hinting that he has been impressed by how assidiously Clinton has courted him since he conceded, and contrasted this with Obama's seemingly more casual approach to date. There is something childish and egotistical to all this, though it's understandable. Edwards lost, and lost decisively, a race that he's been running for four years (longer if you count last time around). That must hurt. He now wants to feel like a player, a big guy. And he wants to feel the last four years weren't wasted. And - lest I sound too cynical - I'm sure he wants to ensure his core issue of poverty is at the centre of the Democratic platform in 2008.
Is his endorsement as important as he'd like to think? Well, it may help with swinging some of his loyal supporters behind someone, and perhaps one or two unions. But probably his most important gift at this stage will be one of momentum. An Edwards endorsement will take up at least a couple of days' coverage at this critical stage of the race, and could make a difference in Ohio and Texas.
But it matters in different ways to different candidates. Clinton has the most to gain from it, hence the effort she's put into courting him. An Edwards endorsement could change the media narrative of - basically - 'She's screwed', to 'She's coming back again!'. Especially if combined with a stronger than expected performance in Wisconsin this week.
For Obama, not so much. An Edwards endorsement would be less of a story. It might even, in my view, have a negative effect: it would risk making Hillary look like the embattled woman up against two grinning boys - a dynamic that worked in her favour in New Hampshire. The best outcome for Obama would be no endorsement at all. That man-hug is focused on keeping Edwards out of Clinton's arms.