what the SCOTUS decision does and doesn't mean

• Obama will be very, very relieved. This is a crisis averted, rather than a triumph achieved. It's like finding out you don't have a terminal illness. But it is, obviously, very good news indeed. If the decision had gone the other way, the biggest problem for Obama wouldn't have been the healthcare mess itself. It's that he would have looked like a loser. Given that the economy is still in the doldrums, Romney would have been able to portray the president as a man in office but not in power. Presidents can survive many things, but the impression that they are impotent is not one of them.
• Romney will be mildly disappointed. But the contest stands at the same place it was last week: close. 
• It doesn't mean Obamacare is popular.
• Columnists who assumed they knew what the decision was going to be and published angry opinion pieces in advance- of which there were many - look quite silly now. One of the features of the digital era is that instant opinion isn't enough any more: people must have opinions before anything actually happens.
• Certain news organisations also look pretty silly. 
• This is a blow for the wisdom of crowds. The prediction market In-Trade had repeal at 75%.
• John Roberts (pictured) will now be seen differently, by his critics and his supporters. Republicans will regard him as another in a long line of pretend conservatives who betray the "movement" the moment they reach the highest bench. Democrats just won't know what to think.
• Biden has cracked a cold one or two. This was a big fucking deal.

Comments

[peter]

You say Roberts will now be seen differently. One wonders how the liberal wing on the Court will view him now. Does this mean that they may try to persuade him to join them on other cases, making his the swing vote (or one of the two swing votes)? In other words, is his vote now in play?

Perhaps it always has been, and we just didn't know, since we don't see how the Supremes make their decisions internally. It would be fascinating to be a fly on that wall.

[Nick]

Excuse the pedantry, but I'm not sure it counts as Wisdom of Crowds when it's predicting how 9 individuals will decide something. Wisdom of Crowds is for understanding actions or data on a scale far beyond the knowledge of 9 people's decisions surely?