inevitable

Photo: Melina Mara/Washington Post

Romney's victory in New Hampshire was not a surprise but it will be no less satisfying to him for that. It was a very convincing win: his share of the vote was at the upper end of expectations. Even more importantly, none of his rivals come out looking stronger than they did before they went in. Ron Paul, whose support has a natural ceiling on it anyway, came a creditable second. Huntsman failed to surge past Paul, the only way he could have made news and gained momentum. Gingrich and Santorum languished in third and fourth; Perry barely scraped his way to 1%. The voting season is proving to be a lot more predictable and less crazy than the pre-season.

Now, the race moves to South Carolina, whose primary takes place on January 21. This may well be the decisive contest; certainly, if Romney wins, it will be. At the moment, that is looking likely. 

The best hope of the other candidates is to be the last man standing, but for Romney. This is why, despite Romney leading the pack, there have been relatively few attacks on him so far (although Gingrich is throwing a few bombs). Everyone knows the party isn't in love with him. So the second-tier candidates are locked into a fight with each other, betting, against very long odds, that if and when it comes down to Romney and one other guy, the voters will think again. However this is about as likely to happen as Rick Perry finishing a book.

Finally, an ominous sign for the Republicans: turnout was down on 2008. Think about that for a second: in 2008, Republican voters were demoralised after the Bush years and few thought their side could win. This year, they are meant to be far more fired up: they have endured a Democratic president for three years. By all measures, they have a much better chance of winning the White House this time around. You'd expect turnout to be way up. That it is down suggests that the party has simply failed to produce candidates that meet the aspirations of its own electorate. Somewhere, David Plouffe is smiling. But without letting anyone see.

Comments

[simon]

Did you see this in the New Yorker?
http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxjxflUetX1qav5oho1_500.jpg

[Arapaho 415]

The media hasn't been honest with the general public. They are in the business of hyping this election as a clone of the once-in-a-lifetime 2008 contest, the first since 1968 a sitting incumbent or his vice president wasn't seeking office. Media hired a ton of people to keep track of all the balls they were juggling for the 2008 drama and now have to justify keeping those people employed.

If money weren't such a factor in allowing candidates to stay in the race, the real key date would be Super Tuesday (Mar 6 when 10 states award almost 20% of the delegates). Less than 15% of delegates will be awarded before Super Tuesday.

The media dreads the lull between Jan 31 (Florida with 50 delegates instead of 99 because they're holding an early primary) and Mar 6, so they're doing all they can to convince the public that January and February are make-or-break.

If money weren't such a deciding factor in whether campaigns could survive, Romney might not be the inevitable nominee. But since I think money will be the deciding factor this year, less about 5% (Jan elections) or 15% (Jan and Feb elections) of the US population will drive Romney to the Republican nomination.