
In Born Liars I recount the story of Leon Festinger's famous study of apocalyptic cults. Festinger, a social psychologist, was interested in the historical recurrence of doomsday movements which claim that the end of the world is imminent, and that only those who believe will be saved. It still happens, of course.
In 1954, when Festinger was at Michigan University, he heard about the existence of a cult in suburban Chicago which believed that at midnight on December 21st, aliens were going to call forth a great flood that would sweep away everyone on earth - except those in the cult, who would be safely transported to another planet. Festinger couldn't resist this opportunity, and joined the cult in the guise of a believer, attending all their meetings. The full story is told in my book (and in Festinger's book-length account of his experiment, When Prophecy Fails). For our purposes it's enough to note his key insight: that when someone holds a strong belief and puts their reputation at stake for it, mere reality often cannot shake them from it. On December 22nd, when the world still stubbornly existed, the Chicago cult didn't say 'OK, we got that wrong, sorry'. They became even more convinced they had been right and began making up rationalisations for what had or hadn't happened. Dissatisfied with reality, they preferred to make up their own.
I was reminded of this psychological dynamic when reading Dan Hodges's coruscating attack on the 'flat earth' mentality shared by many in the Labour Party today. Having elected Ed Miliband and convinced itself that the country is yearning for a left-wing government, and having bet the farm on the Coalition's economic policy being a disaster, they now see everything through this increasingly distorted lens:
There is a world out there where the world is flat, the Tories are desperate to swap their stance on the economy for ours, and if only Ed Miliband could convince more people he’s left wing, we’d be striding to power. As the harsh realities of opposition continue to bite, it’s a world with growing appeal.
Out there on the edge of space and time, where the earth bows to the heavens, Ed Miliband is the sole, final hope of progressive socialism. If he fails, Labour’s historic mission is over for eternity. The left will “wither and die”. At the moment, the cult of the flat earther is everywhere... the local election results were great. There is a progressive majority in this country. Ed’s problem is that not enough people have got to know him.
This is not simple denial. Denial is an inability to face the truth. We’re not just ignoring the truth, we are constructing an entire alternate universe.
John Rentoul was the first to note the similarity between the Millenarian and Milibandian mentalities.
Following Festinger's logic, when the end of the world comes - that is, when Labour loses the next election (or, less likely, Ed Miliband gives up the ghost before then) - the Milibandians won't admit they got anything wrong. They'll dig in, and insist they were more right than ever. It's reality that messed up.
Here are some of the justifications and rationalisations I predict will be most popular amongst the Toynbees, Ashleys, Hundals and Hasans:
- If it weren't for those pesky Blairites...Basically, everything would have been fine except that Blair queered the patch in the first place, and then his people conspired to undermine poor Ed.
- If it weren't for the Murdoch media...The voters - who as everyone knows, are naturally leftish, progressive types yearning for Ed - got scared off by a campaign of distortion and lies led by the Murdoch press.
- If it weren't for the voters ... Perhaps - minor concession - we underestimated the venality and myopia of the voters, especially those in the Southern middle class. So sue us.
I'm sure there will be other excuses - you can make up your own - and I'm even more sure that none of these people will say, 'You know what, I completely misread the politics of this and helped to elect the wrong guy at the wrong time. Sorry about that. Now, where's my copy of A Journey...'
Link to Hodges.
Link to Born Liars, still half-price at Amazon.