clinton's warning

This week the Democrats won a Special Election in Western New York (NY 26) which many see as a bellwether for 2012. The reason it's significant is that the Democrats' candidate won by running against the House Republicans' budget plan, as designed by Paul Ryan, which proposes sweeping changes to America's welfare state, including Medicare. If it worked in NY26, it can work across the country.

That's the theory anyway, and whether or not it's true, many Democrats running for election or reelection next year will interpret it that way, and run hard against any GOP plans to reform entitlements. But will they have a plan of their own?

Bill Clinton, still regarded as the ultimate political strategist (we'll pass briefly over his contribution to Hillary's 2008 campaign), has a warning for his colleagues: don't get carried away. He's concerned - rightly, it seems to me - that if the Dems use this as an excuse to not come up with any reform plans of their own, the electorate will come to see them as fundamentally unserious about America's deficit problems:

“You shouldn’t draw the conclusion that the New York race means that nobody can do anything to slow the rate of Medicare costs. I just don’t agree with that,” Mr. Clinton said at a budget forum sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Instead, he said, “you should draw the conclusion that the people made a judgment that the proposal in the Republican budget is not the right one. I agree with that.” But Mr. Clinton said he feared that Democrats would conclude “that we shouldn’t do anything.”

...Mr. Clinton, with some passion, returned to the topic at the end of an hour-long interview. “I think the Democrats are going to have to be willing to give up, maybe, some short-term political gain by whipping up fears on some of these things — if it’s a reasonable Social Security proposal, a reasonable Medicare proposal. We’ve got to deal with these things. You cannot have health care devour the economy.”

Those on the left over here might do well to take the silver one's words as a warning to them, too. Labour can make short-term gains by attacking every cut the government makes. But unless the electorate believes that Labour has grasped the seriousness of the moment and has a credible plan to reduce the deficit, then it won't vote for them come election time. Yes, the party has a plan on paper (which isn't as dissimilar from the government's plan as it would have us believe) but until it is seen to have really confronted this central economic issue, it won't establish itself as an alternative government. At the moment, Miliband and Balls don't project any urgency when they mention the deficit. They need to  - and they can't fake it; before they convince the voters they're deadly serious the nation's finances, they will have to convince themselves.

Link to report of Clinton remarks.

Link to an interesting bit of backchat between Clinton and Paul Ryan.

Comments

[N.Wells]

The Democrats' Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act constitutes a huge (even if imperfect) attack on health care costs and the deficit, and includes trying out a huge variety of cost-saving ideas related to health care. That was a serious approach, and it was accomplished at significant political cost, in the face of massive Republican opposition. Why anyone would think that this marks Democrats as unserious in contrast to Republican lies, distortions, magic math, fantasy budget predictions, and unpaid-for tax cuts for corporations and the very wealthy I have no idea.

[הסרת שיער]

I have seen that that's the concept anyway, and whether or not it's real, many dems managing for political election or reelection next season will think of it that way, and run challenging against any GOP programs to change entitlements.