will there be a duffy effect?

Gillian Duffy now has a PR spokesman and a £50k deal with a national newspaper. She's famous around the world. After the X-Factor-style debates, the Susan Boyle moment. This is an election campaign as masterminded by Simon Cowell.

So will bigotgate actually have an impact? Yes, although only a small one. Unlike John Rentoul, I doubt this story will have any direct effect on the polls, because I don't think one-off incidents shift preferences. Particularly if they reinforce rather than cut against existing perception. Everyone knows Brown is socially awkward, rough and rude; for viewers, this is a laugh and a wince but it's not shocking or even surprising. Indeed, as with the saga of Brown's letter to a bereaved mother, there may be a counter-wave of sympathy after the papers pile on with both boots tomorrow; many people will watch the footage tonight with a feeling of "There but for the grace of God..." remembering all the times they've nearly been caught badmouthing someone, and Brown's look of utter abjection in that radio interview makes you feel sorry for him.

Even if its direct effect is neutral, however, it matters, because it cancels the (slight) possibility that Brown and Labour mount a rearguard recovery in the last week of the campaign. It's also just a sad, undignified way for Brown to enter his last week as Prime Minister.

UPDATE: Reports vary but it seems Mrs Duffy has not taken The Sun's money. Good for her. Hope she's left alone by media now.

Comments

[Will M]

Everyone knows Brown's socially awkward, and some of us thought he was insincere and two-faced. Now more do. I agree with you (and, I guess, with Danny Finklestein) that some of this has been priced in, but at the same time it has never been this clear before.

That said, given the Lib Dems loss of momentum, tomorrow is perhaps David's to lose.

[ejoch]

My initial reaction was to feel sorry for Brown, not an emotion I thought I'd ever feel. It does make him look weirdly inexperienced- because what she seems to have said was pretty mild. The kind of confrontation anyone with any practice with the public would have thought nothing of!

[Gus]

"... because what she seems to have said was pretty mild ..."

It was indeed, ejoch.

I contrast it with what we've heard reported of the blessed Blair and his entourage's parlous language in similar circumstances in the past!

[peter]

What has surprised me in this campaign is the message that is NOT being broadcast by Brown (or at least, not being received by us voters): Surely, he should be saying that fiscal cuts are going to needed, and therefore we should elect people with the right values and experience to make these cuts fairly. Such a message would make Labour look responsible ("we're not promising utopia") and play into the vague distrust that most people still have about the Tories being nasty, elitist sloane rangers.

[peter]

Somewhere in provincial England, conversation overheard in a Costa Coffee this morning:

Barista #1 to Customer: You're one of our nicest customers.
Customer: Why, that's nice. Thank you! (Pause) But what do you say about me after I leave the cafe?
(Baristas #1, 2, 3: Laughter)
Barista #2: We say you're a bigot!
(Baristas #1, 2, 3 and several customers: Loud laughter)
(Pause)
Barista #3: Poor Mr Brown.
Customer: Yes, all of us have said that about someone, haven't we.
Barista #1: The poor guy - he gets no peace.
Barista #2: The TV was full of it last night, as if this was important.
Others: Yeah. Yes.