As regular readers know, I have the highest regard for Nate Silver and his team at 538, who predicted the results of the 2008 primaries and general with an uncanny degree of accuracy. As well as being statistical savants, they're brilliant political commentators: perceptive, wise and wary of conventional wisdoms. So whilst this isn't their home turf, I'd suggest it's worth taking their projections of our election outcome very seriously indeed. Suspicious of the widely used "uniform swing", they've come up with their own model for translating poll numbers into seats. This is what it predicts:
Tories 299, Labour 199, LibDems 120.
(My completely unscientific feeling is that a lot of wavering voters will swing behind Cam & Co in the last week, and they'll crawl across the overall majority finish line.)
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