the dead shark

The polls are now telling a consistent story: Labour is closing on the Tories. Considering we're at the end of a third term of a tired government led by an unpopular Prime Minister, this is pretty extraordinary. John Rentoul talks to a bemused Labour MP:

"What is going on?" one Labour MP asked me this week. "Who are these people who want to vote for five more years of Gordon Brown? It's extraordinary."

In this week's Spectator, James Forsyth offers a gripping analysis of the Tories' confusion. Key quote:

It is as clear to the country as it is to the top Tories that the Conservative election campaign is in trouble; that the party seems to be stagnating. One aide puts it like this: ‘A shark has to constantly move forward or it dies. And I think what we’ve got on our hands is a dead shark.’

Or is just stunned?

I still back the Tories to win (and to win an overall majority) but there's no doubt they ought to be doing a lot better than this at this stage. So what's the problem? I'd say there are two key reasons for their stunted progress. One is that, despite the hothouse atmosphere of Westminster and the vagaries of polls, people's underlying political perceptions are formed and unformed at the speed of igneous rock. In other words, voters still don't quite trust that the Tories aren't the same party that was led by Mrs Thatcher and John Major. The second is that Cam and Os have never quite convinced the electorate that they are grown-ups; a problem that their confused, ever-shifting response to the economic crisis has starkly illuminated.

Comments

[Richard]

Good points well made. I'm not sure many people are making the Thatcher/Major link, but perhaps we're seeing the 1992 effect for a new generation and for different reasons. Cameron and Osbourne just don't seem trustworthy and it's a bit embarrassing to admit you'd vote for them. But when push comes to shove, people just don't trust the Labour leadership - cue your Tory win.

I'm alienated by most politicians. But with a hard road for the next couple of parliaments, I think I'd prefer some older, wiser heads in charge. I know it's a cliché, but how reassuring would it be to have Ken Clarke at the head of the party leading the polls?

[Alan]

Aggregate opinion polls can be very misleading in the UK of course. A hung parliament could be a very real possibility:

"Opinion polls throughout 2009 have pointed to a comfortable Conservative lead. However, for reasons largely to do with the differential concentration of the parties’ respective support bases, Labour has a significant inbuilt advantage under the current electoral system. In 2005, for instance, the Conservatives won one seat for every 44,000 votes gained – fully 65% above the equivalent figure for Labour. On the assumption of a uniform national swing, this means that the Conservatives require a swing of just under 7% to secure a majority. This is higher than the party has managed in any election since the Second World War.
"

From http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/pdfs/making-minority-gov-work.pdf

[Will M]

I'd say several things going on, with various long and short term consequenses, which are creating a bad combination for the Tories. I've tried to organise from long-term to short-term below.

1. Small government ideologies are rarely well suited to below zero interest-rate recessionary environments.
2. The Tories have a very limited economics skill set / knowledge both at senior levels in the party, and seemingly at advisor level.
3. The Labour Party have been far less tainted by being in charge when we went into a recession than might have been expected. (cf recent polling numbers on 'trusted to handle the econonmy').
4. The Tories have a limited set of policies more generally, especially outside the 'society' sphere
5. A party called (and orientated to be) Conservative is particularly ill-placed to win a Change election
6. The Labour Party staff, unlike the Tories in 1997, still want to win.
7. A right-wing party will often find it difficult to be the party of opposition to bankers and elites. Especially when senior leaders of that party went to Eton + Oxbridge.
8. The Tories believe the more the nation looks at Gordon Brown, the more the nation votes Tory. They are wrong.
9. The Labour Party press operation has raised its game tremendously, arguably back to near Blair-level quality.

As a Tory I'd love to see them win, but I'm far less convinced. As the polls tighten, a lot of the commentary seems to be about "well, its all about hte distribution of the votes, we're micro-targetting," etc etc. This has been a Tory tune since Hague's Tory party won a landslide in local elections and then the Euro elections. Likewise IDS and Howard's Tory party. It has yet to happen.

[ejoch]

I don't know what's more depressing really... the 'igneous rock' voters (totally true), and the opposite kind- the ones you see interviewed in the media going "oh, he seems like such a decent family man, I've never voted for before but I'll vote for him."
The trouble is, if you pander to the latter kind of voter you end up with the kind of vacuous slogans & campaigns that make everyone else want to scream- and every time I see an advert with 'change' in it, I do. (and being of republican persuasion there's currently nowhere else for me to go, here, but the tories- so if I'm finding them irritating god knows how a real floating voter of any intelligence reacts)
Not that Labour are any better in the vacuous stakes, of course. I suppose an intelligent floating voter should just filter out the campaign nonsense on both sides and try and discern the policy differences.

[selfloathingreview]

I have a Keeganesque ( I will love it if we beat them, love it!) approach to the Tories but sadly believe it'll end the same way as Newcastle's assault on the title.