self-congratulation alert

A new poll in the Sunday Times has the Conservative lead down to 2%. Tory blogger Tim Montgomerie draws conclusions:

One of the big lessons of the last week is that there is no evidence that attacks on Brown's character and style of politics have any traction. The bullying and 'forces of hell' episodes excited Westminster but do not appear to have done Brown one scrap of damage.

Of course, if he'd been reading Marbury he would have seen this (not) coming.

Ps "Gordon Brown on course to win election" is a headline you could have made a lot of money by betting against in the last year.

Comments

[Will M]

Marbury reading, much as I encourage it, and whilst it would have cautioned against expecting the Tories to pull ahead off the back of Brown, would not have lead anyone to expect a narrowing to a margin of error lead. Perhaps it was a rogue poll, or perhaps it's a blip that will be killed off by Cameron's latest speech. But whatever the case, this is the exact opposite of what the vast majority of the commentariat were predicting for this stage of the election. If Labour continue to progress, I wonder how quickly the post hoc rationalisations will start flying.