In the 1992 UK general election John Major's Tories won a thumping victory over the Labour Party despite polls showing that the two parties were neck and neck. Subsequent investigation discovered that the discrepancy had been caused by "shy Tories": voters who were going to vote Conservative but were too embarrassed to tell anyone, not even a pollster. John Major just wasn't a very inspiring figure - and everyone knew that Neil Kinnock and Labour were destined to win. So, thought many Tories, best to keep quiet.
Nate Silver at 538 suspects something similar might be at work in the US election. New polls are showing a big positive response to the GOP convention: has the Palin phenomenon convinced some shy Republicans to come out of the woodwork and boldly (well, anonymously) declare their allegiance?
True, but 538 also put the 'post-convention' bounce in some perspective
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/peak-at-new-electoral-map.html
Posted by: paul canning | September 09, 2008 at 05:36 PM