So say the 538 guys. Her favourability numbers are in decline. In fact, they suggest she may even end up becoming a net liability for McCain.
In terms of the overall dynamic of the race, her pick does and will have the significant benefit of firing up the conservative base of her party. But I don't think she's quite the game-changer many think or thought.
Neither do I think the confidence that has been surging through Republican veins in the last week will last beyond the end of the month. The fact is, right after a great convention and the excitement over Palin, McCain has got to a tie. Bush was several points ahead of Kerry by this stage. Despite the insubstantial pageant of stunts and ugly frogs that the McCain campaign has been staging, their candidate still hasn't found a message beyond "trust me, I'm John McCain, war hero". That might be enough in a year when the parties were more evenly matched. But not this year.
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