"Every poll shows that people want a Democratic president, the problem is they’re not sure they want Barack Obama.”
Politico gives seven reasons for the Obama campaign to be worried.
Whilst this kind of thing is fun and moves the story on, as they say, I don't find it particularly convincing. I do agree with the underlying proposition: in a year when the Democrats ought to win in a landslide, they've ended up with a candidate who will have to work hard to win at all (conversely, the Republicans have - by accident - chosen the only guy qualified to pull it out of the bag for them). This is partly to do with Obama's race and name, and a lot to do with his newness to the national scene, and the thinness of his political résumé .
But, the facts remain...Obama's campaign is a better-run and more effective organisation than McCain's, especially at ground level. McCain still hasn't really found a theme to match the resonance of Obama's 'change'. Many of Obama's natural supporters are younger and will only tune into the race - and start answering pollsters' questions properly - in the autumn.
Above all, this election is a judgement on Obama's readiness to lead. As people get to know him better, and see him perform reasonably well - as I expect he will - in the debates, they'll feel more at ease with the idea of him being the next president. Most Americans want to vote for the Democrat this time round. They just want to get a good look at him first.
(ps: for an Obama supporter, Bob Kerrey is pretty good at thinking up reasons Obama might blow it, isn't he?)
Comments