In 2000 and 2004, George Bush pretty much had the evangelical Christian vote locked up. In 2008 this group will be a more contested constituency, for at least a couple of reasons.
First, John McCain is mistrusted by many in the evangelical movement, one of the key parts of the Republican coalition. Although a churchgoer (in theory anyway), McCain has certainly never worn his faith on his sleeve in the manner of the current president, and last time he ran for president he got into a fight with some hardline evangelical leaders, describing them as 'agents of intolerance'. Although he takes fairly conventional conservative positions on abortion and gay marriage, many evangelicals suspect his heart isn't really in it when it comes to those issues, and they're probably right. But McCain will be working hard to win them over and get them working for him in the coming months.
Second, Barack Obama is more at ease talking about his faith than many Democratic candidates of the past, and he wants to make a pitch for more moderate Christian voters who would traditionally vote Republican. It's one of the things that convinced him and others that he might make a successful run at the presidency in the first place. The New York Times reports that he has hired a full-time staffer to run his religious outreach programme, which involves the organization of a thousand house parties over the summer, built around a curriculum on faith and politics (sounds like a swell party!). Obama's problems are that on the social issues that evangelicals care about, such as abortion, he's very liberal. Also, the most visible manifestation of his church has been his ranting, angry former pastor.
A broader reason for the battle over these voters is that, socially and politically, the evangelical movement is becoming more moderate and socially diffuse, as a younger generation less schooled in the battles of the past comes to the fore. They can no longer be relied upon by the Republicans in quite the way they have in the past, no matter who the candidate is.
Finally, from the same NYT report, this:
David Brody, a political correspondent for the Christian Broadcasting Network, said he believed Mr. Obama’s comments had hurt his chances among evangelicals, but he added, “I think Obama has a great opportunity still, with the Jeremiah Wright controversy behind him, to re-introduce himself with the American people, especially with his spiritual walk.”
You know, I hadn't noticed Obama's spiritual walk before, I'll have to check it out...
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