if not hillary...obama's top five veep contenders

As Halperin suggests, Obama may want to get his veep pick in quickly, lest his search be warped and distorted by intense media speculation over whether it will be Hillary. She seems to want it but Obama, as far as I can tell, would rather have Bob Dole as a running mate than Clinton. So if he's going to pull someone out of the bag in the next couple of weeks in order to take the pressure off, who will it be? These are complete guesses, almost certainly all wrong, and in no particular order:

Ted Strickland. The Governor of Ohio is one of Hillary Clinton's key supporters, and getting him on the ticket would help Obama appease Clinton and her supporters without having to take her. Plus, Ohio is one of the key swing states, in fact the key state, in November, and Strickland could help deliver it. He has experience in Washington (he was in the House of Representatives). Con: no national security experience.

Sam Nunn. Ancient former Senator from Georgia, conservative Democrat, and national security hawk. Pros are he balances Obama in terms of experience, culture, geography, and he makes it more difficult for the GOP to paint the Dem ticket as soft on defense. As a seasoned old hand with no further ambitions, he could help Obama get things done in on Capitol Hill. Plus he provides a direct link with the days of Abraham Lincoln. Cons: his old-hand-ness rather undermines Obama's claim to be bringing change to Washington. He may also be too dull. But then again, balance and all that.

Mark Warner. The former Governor of Virginia was considered a serious contender for the presidency this year but dropped out at the end of 2006 citing family reasons. By all accounts he'd like the veep nomination. Pros are he's youngish, charismatic, well-liked, with a strong record of executive experience. The narrative of a southerner teaming up with an African-American will appeal to Obama. More prosaically Warner could help deliver Virginia, where he is still very popular. Cons are, no national security experience, no Washington experience. Also, why exactly did he decide not to run himself?

Kathleen Sebelius. Yes she's a woman (and so may help soothe disaffected Clintonite supporters). But more importantly she's proved a popular Governor of a midwestern state (Kansas) and would run well on a 'change' platform with Obama. Also, she was an early endorser and hard-working surrogate for Obama in the campaign. Cons - no national security experience, and some may blanche at the lack of a white man on the ticket.

Joe Biden. One of the most experienced Senators (he is the Senator for Delaware), and a foreign policy expert, Biden balances Obama's youth and inexperience. He is liked and respected by politicians of all stripes, he can attack opponents with wit and authority, and he might well make an effective number two in the White House. However, he's the very definition of an old Washington hand, which may undermine Obama's change message. Also, he has a habit of putting his foot in his mouth and then shooting it, which might be dangerous.

Among people commonly touted as possibles that I'd dismiss, I'd say Bill Richardson. Although James Carville's Judas remark may have seemed like an irrational outburst, it did have the effect of poisoning Richardson's name for Clinton supporters across the party. And Obama can't afford to piss them off any more than he has. I'm also leaving Jim Webb off the list, even though I think Obama will be attracted to the idea - ultimately they'll both have to recognize that he's unsuited to the job itself.

Of course, it all comes down to whether Obama feels personally comfortable with his choice. Does he like them? Could he work with them? Does he trust them? But if I were advising Obama, I'd say go for Warner, on the basis that he amplifies and complements Obama's strengths. I think the 'balance' argument is overrated. If voters don't trust Obama on national security, having a hawk as VP won't really help, same for experience/inexperience. Outside possibilities: Chuck Hagel, Oprah Winfrey, George Bush Senior.

Comments

[Ozzie Maland]

I'd prefer John Edwards or Chris Van Hollen.
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Aloha ~~~ Ozzie Maland ~~~ San Diego

[mistah charley, ph.d.]

A plausible bone to throw in the Clinton direction - and an approximately reasonable man among those Americans acceptable to the MICFiC* - might be Arkansas's own Gen. Wesley Clark.

*M ilitary
I ndustrial
C ongressional
Fi nancial
C orporate Media Complex