kentucky and oregon get their say

The Democratic primary, now in its final weeks, staggers on. Two states vote tomorrow.

Clinton is expected to win in Kentucky. She has a big lead (51-25 in the latest poll) though it's unlikely she'll win with as big a margin as she got in West Virginia last week. Obama has more or less conceded the state, barely bothering to campaign there. The exit polls, if they show all the non-college educated white voting for Clinton, will increase the pressure on Obama to convince superdelegates he can do better with those voters in the general.

Oregon is closer, though Obama currently has a lead in the polls and is expected to win it. Politically and culturally Oregon is a game of two halves. The urban, populated West includes the largest city Portland and is full of the sort of liberal, educated, white, latte-drinking types who adore Obama (hence the extraordinary turn-out, estimated at 75,000, to Sunday's rally - see photo). The rural east is populated by farmers who are traditionally more conservative and more likely to turn out for Clinton. Facts: Oregon is one of the whitest states in the union, with 98% of its inhabitants being of the paler persuasion. Plus, its nickname is the Beaver State.

Nothing that happens tomorrow will change the outcome of this race. But if Clinton wins by a West Virginia margin in Kentucky, or if she pulls out a victory or something close to it in Oregon, then Obama will be seriously embarrassed and the party will be seized by another fit of angst.

Comments

[Dawn]

Not to nitpick or anything, but Salem (not Portland) is the capital of Oregon.

[marbury]

I sit corrected - thanks Dawn. Correction made.